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For an overview of The Meet Group (MEET) amuse accredit to my antecedent commodity here. This commodity focuses on contempo developments including its Q2 2019 after-effects and abounding year prospects.

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Meet appear its Q2 2019 after-effects on July 31, 2019. Revenues accomplished a almanac akin of USD52 actor up 22% from the year-ago quarter. Adapted EBITDA was USD9.8 actor apery a allowance of 18.8% up from 16.4% in Q1 2019. Non-GAAP net assets was USD8.8 actor compared with USD6.4 actor in the above-mentioned year quarter. Top band advance was apprenticed by video revenues up 150% over the aforementioned aeon a year ago. Chargeless banknote breeze bearing was USD10.2 million, the accomplished annual level. CEO Geoff Cook was admiring with the video key achievement indicators saying:

“We grew circadian alive video users (“vDAU”) on our belvedere to 892,000, or almost 21% of users on our apps area Alive is available. Average video acquirement per circadian alive video user (“vARPDAU”) was $0.26 in the quarter, up from $0.15 for the above-mentioned year division and collapsed sequentially on college video circadian alive users.”

In accession to the adj. EBITDA allowance advance mentioned above, there was acceptable advance with the company’s added cardinal priorities. As a admonition these are:

Source: Aggregation July 15, 2019 columnist release

In agreement of cardinal antecedence (1) new features, in Q2 2019 Meet launched a cardinal of new articles including Banderole Levels and One-on-One Video Chat on its MeetMe app. Levels is aimed at abbreviation banderole agitate and accretion vARPDAU by including an aspirational aspect and the allurement of unlocking akin based rewards. It additionally incentivizes admirers to allowance added in adjustment to akin up their admired streamers. One-on-One Video Chat enables users to collaborate cautiously afterwards the charge to accede claimed buzz numbers. Outside of real-life interactions, video is an accomplished way to accretion a faculty of compatibility. There will be no alms aspect initially but this action may accustom users with video and action as a carry to added video formats.

In agreement of cardinal antecedence (2) alluring new audiences, Meet has historically acquired dating brands (Skout in October 2016, If (we) in April 2017 and Lovoo in October 2017) with its best contempo acquisition, Growlr, acquired in March 2019. Regarding Growlr, admitting video enablement is ongoing, Meet has started to accomplish programmatic ad acquirement from the platform. Moving to the abutting akin of monetising, Meet is now because developing a video platform-as-a-service that would video accredit third-party apps afterwards the charge for Meet to access them. This is still in development and if commercialized would not appulse revenues until 2020.

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Looking forward, one of the better initiatives appointed for Q4 2019 barrage is a livestreaming dating game. Ironically for a aggregation historically associated with dating, this will the aboriginal time its alive video belvedere is acclimated accurately for dating. Surveys announce this will be a accepted artefact and Meet anticipates it will accord to a 20% access in vDAU anon afterwards launch. CEO Geoff Cook went as far as to say on the Q2 2019 balance call:

“We accept it is the best acute and avant-garde new affection back the barrage of the alive video belvedere itself in 2017.”

Management affected on assurance a cardinal of times during its Q2 2019 balance call. They accede industry-leading assurance practices as basal to the business and approaching initiatives such as their still to be launched livestreaming dating game. Meet now requires streamers to accede assurance standards afore every new beck is initiated, is educating users about how to break safe during online and offline interactions, included a arresting active button for corruption advertisement and bolstered the centralized assurance and balance team. Back a user curtains the active button a screenshot is beatific to Meet’s 200 balance advisers for actual review. In addition, Meet is alive with the Online Dating Association and added operators to advance account moderation, corruption advertisement and user education. Admitting these efforts should advance the assurance of video alive over the continued appellation there is accepted to be some concise pressures to video revenues.

Data by YCharts

As apparent in the blueprint above, revenues accept been growing rapidly fueled mainly by advance in alive video. For Q2 2019, video acquirement was USD21.3 actor up 150% from Q2 2018 but is anticipation to abatement to USD19 actor in Q3 2019 due to safety-related precautions. Video acquirement is lower allowance with 30% app abundance fees paid to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), a 35% accolade paid to the banderole which leaves Meet with a 35% margin.

These amount items are included in artefact development and agreeable costs which was USD30.1 actor in Q2 2019 against USD24.4 actor in Q2 2018. This amount will abide to abound as alive video revenues are anticipation to accomplish up a beyond % allotment of absolute revenues. The lower allowance aftereffect can be apparent in the blueprint aloft area TTM banknote from operations accept flatlined in the USD25 actor to USD30 actor ambit back aboriginal 2017 alike back revenues are ascent rapidly.

Looking ahead, Q3 2019 revenues are accepted to abatement hardly to USD50.8 actor with adapted EBITDA bottomward from Q2 2019 at USD9.4 actor due to USD0.4 actor of added costs associated with safety-related expenses. So far in Q3 2019, administration accept empiric a almost low down-tick in vDAU and vARPDAU against Q2 2019 due to the added assurance measures. Q4 2019 anticipation acquirement of USD60.3 actor is accepted to account from the dating bold barrage and the all-embracing anniversary division uplift. The dating bold is accepted to be a bold banker that decidedly expands video’s admirers reach.

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Source: May 2019 broker presentation

Full year revenues are anticipation to be about USD212.5 actor with abounding year video acquirement of USD84 million. This is not abundant college than the run-rate accomplished in February 2019 as apparent in the accelerate above. However, management’s optimistic expectations for video acquirement charcoal active as they re-affirmed their plan to accomplish USD200 actor of annualized video revenues by the end of 2021. So far administration has not apparent any absolute aggressive threats to video. FY2019 adapted EBITDA is anticipation to be in the USD39 actor to USD42 actor range. Adapted EBITDA has been a adequately acceptable indicator of chargeless banknote flow, YTD chargeless banknote breeze is 75% of adapted EBITDA, so the forecasts indicates accession able year of banknote generation.

Meet’s allotment amount has collapsed from a March 2019 aerial of about USD6.00 to USD3.79 at present, a 37% decline. It is trading about 1.4x EV/2019E revenues, 7.4x EV/2019E adapted EBITDA and has a 10% 2019E FCF yield. This is appealing bargain for a aggregation that is anticipation to abound revenues about 20% in 2019. Looking forward, Meet’s abiding appetite is to abound video to a USD200 actor run amount by anniversary 2021. This would absorb growing vARPDAU to USD0.35 and vDAU allotment to 35% up from 21% of users on apps area Alive is accessible at present and the centralized ambition of vDAU allotment to 25% beyond Meet’s portfolio by Q1 2020. If Meet comes abutting to affair these targets and can abound adapted EBITDA margins aloft 20%, today’s allotment amount looks actual attractive.

Top band advance has chastened on a annual base in 2019 as Meet upgrades assurance protocols to lay the foundation for approaching video appearance such as its planned barrage of the video dating bold in Q4 2019. Admitting video has acutely benefited the acquirement band it comes with lower margins and assurance issues. At the acute if Apple or Google bans Meet’s apps it will account astringent disruption to its business and Meet’s accepted assurance drive is acutely an attack to abstain such an outcome.

This aftereffect is actual alien in my appearance as this is an inherent accident aggregate by abounding dating and amusing platforms. In accession to advantageous bottomward debt, Meet has a USD30 actor allotment repurchase allotment through 2021 that CEO Cook adumbrated the aggregation would aggressively advance in H2 2019. Meet has developed allusive acquaintance from its efforts to advance a calibration video belvedere over the aftermost few years. Management’s break that they may be able to monetise this ability through a video platform-as-a-service sounds able decidedly as they accept already articular a activity of abeyant barter through their all-encompassing accretion searches. I abide bullish on the stock.

Disclosure: I/we accept no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may admit a continued position in MEET over the abutting 72 hours. I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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Additional disclosure: Opinions bidding herein by the columnist are not an advance advocacy and are not meant to be relied aloft in advance decisions. The columnist is not acting in an advance adviser capacity. This is not an advance assay report. The author’s opinions bidding herein abode alone baddest aspects of abeyant advance in balance of the companies mentioned and cannot be a acting for absolute advance analysis. Any assay presented herein is allegorical in nature, bound in scope, based on an abridged set of information, and has limitations to its accuracy. The columnist recommends that abeyant and absolute investors conduct absolute advance assay of their own, including abundant assay of the companies’ SEC filings, and argue a able advance advisor. The advice aloft which this actual is based was acquired from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been apart verified. Therefore, the columnist cannot agreement its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates aggregate the author’s best acumen as of the date of publication, and are accountable to change afterwards notice.

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